St Leger Preview and Prediction
Its time for the final classic of the flat season which is of course Doncaster’s St Leger and here is all you need to know for the race. 8 contenders line up this year with 4 of them being trained by Aiden O’Brien! The improving and Goodwood cup group 1 winner SCANDINAVIA heads the market and will be taking on the Epsom Derby winner Lambourn. Paddy Twomey sends his consistent and lightly raced colt CARMERS who could serve it up to the big two at the top of the market. The market does suggest that the other 5 runners will be playing for places and it’s hard to argue against that.
A classic like no other
Most drama and talking points normally happen AFTER a race, however, this year it’s slightly different as there has been so many headlines surrounding the St Leger and there is still around a week before the race starts. According to The Guardian, Ryan Moore, who is often so reliable in these big races, is injured and will not be riding again for a good while after sustaining a fractured femur some time ago but cannot carry on racing as it has got worse and so will miss the Doncaster meeting. On top of this, the team also lose their second best jockey as Wayne Lordan is suspended from riding between the 9th September – 18th September for incorrect use of the whip in a previous race. Wayne and the team did appeal the decision, however, had no luck and the suspension stands, this leaves the team looking elsewhere for jockeys that will be riding for them at the big meeting and no one is confirmed as of yet.
Further rumours and speculation surrounding the future of the favourite for this race, SCANDINAVIA, were all over social media this week with people reporting that HE WILL BE SOLD just a few days before running in the St Leger. However, the fact he has made it into the final stages of declarations makes it hard to think that he will be sold now but you can never be 100% sure. No matter what happens Aiden O’Brien has won 4 out the last 10 renewals and has won the last 2 in a row and so knows exactly what it takes to win this race and it’s hard to oppose his runners this year.
Preview and Prediction
Scandinavia vs Lambourn
It’s hard to see the race not being won by SCANDINAVIA or LAMBOURN as they are rated 117 and 120 on official ratings and the closest to them on ratings is FURTHUR who is rated 112 and could struggle without the perfect ground for him. The only real challenger could be CARMERS who has only ran 4 times and has managed to already win a group 2 and fall short in another group 2. He looks to be a horse that is really improving and has won a race where SCANDINAVIA only placed 5th in, however, he had excuses and you could make the case he was unlucky that day and rallied well very late on , whereas CARMERS more held on for the win. This would make it seem as though if CARMERS is going to be close he’ll have to adopt his front running tactics again. Despite this idea, CARMERS may be met by SERENGETI at the front whose sole job will be to set a fast pace as that will suit both LAMBOURN and SCANDINAVIA and turn it into a real staying test, like the St Leger should be.
A huge positive on the CV of SCANDINAVIA is that he has proved his quality by beating those that are older than him and even showed a few of them up in the Goodwood Cup. SCANDINAVIA got the better of ILLINOIS last time out, he was carrying a lot less in the race but to win a race of that caliber against bigger, older, stronger horses makes it mighty impressive. More than 3 lengths behind him that day was SWEET WILLIAM who has since put up an impressive 2nd in the Lonsdale Cup less than 2 lengths behind, the best stayer in the country at the moment, TRAWLERMAN.
LAMBOURN was super impressive in the derby and was not for catching but it’s hard not to feel like some where unlucky in the derby and that he perhaps got the run of the race, he was marvelous in the Irish Derby but then flopped in the Great Voltigeur Stakes where he beat 2 home and was odds of 4/5. Aiden did say that this was just a run out for him and was a stepping stone and so he can be excused for that performance and should be a lot better here.
The main concern would be if the weather gets really bad and it comes anywhere near officially soft ground on the day as it’s a big question mark with the SCANDINAVIA and LAMBOURN. Having said this, that is the ONLY real worry about them and they should both be all class come the gates opening. The main danger would be CARMERS if progressing even further, it’s hard to imagine any of the other runners landing a blow and if no traffic problems it will be either SCANDINAVIA or LAMBOURN as the 2025 St Leger winner.
Prediction:
1st – SCANDINAVIA 2nd – LAMBOURN 3rd – CARMERS
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