Thoroughbred Thoughts

Cheltenham Festival – Day 1

A preview over the big 3 races from day 1 and the best bets. Day 1 is the most competitive with three of the best races of the whole meeting with the Supreme Novice Hurdle, The Arkle and The Champion Hurdle.

Supreme Novice Hurdle

Always an interesting contest as, naturally, they are all unexposed over hurdles. It will be fast paced over the 2m 1/2f with little room for error. Betting angles for this race are to choose horses that are safe jumpers and have also proven that they can keep up to the pace. There is still some doubt on if some horses will be participating, as recently, support for Mighty Park has been high for him to be switched to this race which would make him a big player. Talk The Talk is going in the other direction and support for him to switch to the turners has been high this week.

There will 100% be a fast tempo to the race and this should play into his hands and if he gets into a rhythm like he has been he’ll be very hard to beat. Mighty Park would be a huge, however, doubts would be that he’s only had the one run over hurdles and seems better suited to the turners. One that may have been forgotten at a bigger price is Mydaddypaddy and don’t think its fair to forget him after one poor run which was over 4 hurdles, this trip suits and the more hurdles the better and at 10/1 and e/w play is fair.

The Arkle

This race seems to be a straight head to head with the two at the top of the market. It’s Henderson vs Mullins again with Lulamba taking on Kopek Des Bordes. The former receiving a lot of support in the market this week to push it into favoritism for the race. Kopek was a great hurdler and everyone was waiting patiently to see what kind of chaser he would make as he looked made for it.

However, people would’ve expected he had more than one run over fences before going to the Arkle but some setbacks got in the way of prep. His one run over fences was impressive but that was in November and nothing has been seen on track since. So why the late money for him? Well he had a racecourse gallop against some other high rated horses and it supposedly turned more into a race where Kopek was a class apart. Lack of race experience would be a worry coming into the Arkle but winning after just the 1 run over fences has been done before.

Lulamba has won all of his 3 chase starts and has been impressive, his last race being his toughest challenge but when asked to go and win the race, his reply was instant and he went on to win by 6 1/2L. His natural jumping ability is impressive and he has the advantage of more race experience that Kopek lacks. This could give him the edge in a race that looks to just concern the two mentioned. It will be a great battle but it makes more sense to side with the consistent and race proven Lulamba.

The Champion Hurdle

A much weaker champion hurdle than normal with no big star in the race with no State Man this season and Constitution Hill going down the flat campaign route. However, that doesn’t mean it won’t be competitive and it may actually make it a much closer contest. Decisions still need to be made on Lossiemouth and whether she dodges this race for another year. If Lossiemouth is to miss this Champion Hurdle then she was never running in any of them.

Brighterdaysahead was inconsistent last season and perhaps lost races she should’ve won and only just beat Lossiemouth over the 2m last out, Golden Ace is solid but could easily be found out and the others aren’t world class and could be found out too. This leaves it down to The New Lion who is all pace and will love this trip around Cheltenham, he can make mistakes but they should go fast here and that will suit him. Trusting he jumps better than in the Fighting Fifth, he will be right there. This race is sure to be a messy one but maybe quite a tactical one and wouldn’t be a surprise if The New Lion can catch them out with his speed.